Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, May 28

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, May 24	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, May 25	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, May 26	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, May 27	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, May 28	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210847 SPC AC 210847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe potential will remain low through the beginning of the extended period. Weak troughing will continue across the central Plains D4/Sunday before height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west D5/Monday. This pattern will remain in place through early next week. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with occasional rounds of widespread rainfall and thunderstorms, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low.

By the midweek, a trough is progged to begin deepening across the Pacific Northwest. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies, resulting in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains D6/Tuesday and D7/Wednesday. Moisture advection will spread northward amid strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. While there are some differences in the placement of upper-level and surface features, it is possible that severe chances will return across portions of northern High Plains. For now, confidence in exact corridors remains low given model guidance differences.

..Thornton.. 05/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, May 21: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 5%
Friday, May 22: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, May 23: ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, May 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, May 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, May 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, May 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, May 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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