Severe Weather Outlook

Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?

* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar

Outlook for Friday, May 29

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, May 25	potential too low
Day 5	Tuesday, May 26	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, May 27	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, May 28	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, May 29	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220901 SPC AC 220901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe potential will remain low D4/Monday. Height rises begin across the central US with a high amplitude ridge settling in from the west. Slow moisture return will be ongoing across much of the Plains into the Midwest with widely scattered areas of rainfall and thunderstorms. A few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible, but generally weak flow and subsidence will keep organized storm potential low.

A trough is progged to begin deepening across the Pacific Northwest D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies, resulting in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains. Moisture advection will spread northward amid strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. There remains uncertainty in the northward and westward extent of moisture return and in progression of the western trough. Severe storms may occur each day across some portion of the northern and northern/central High Plains. For now, confidence in exact corridors remains low.

By D7/Thursday-D8/Friday, guidance suggests the western low becomes cut off and slowly wobbles towards the Great Basin before becoming absorbed back into the northern stream. This is likely due to continued high amplitude ridging across the central US. Some severe potential may extend into the eastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec in the D7-D8 period.

..Thornton.. 05/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, May 22: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, May 23: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, May 24: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, May 25: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, May 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, May 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, May 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, May 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.