Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, June 1

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, May 28	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, May 29	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, May 30	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, May 31	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, June 1	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250843 SPC AC 250843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Thursday through D5/Friday

The western low is expected to shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream D4/Thursday - D5/Friday. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies.

Guidance suggests that as the western trough shifts northward and weak disturbances rotate across the Rockies, lee troughing across the Plains may strengthen D5/Friday, bringing a potential for low end severe risk into the central/northern High Plains. For now confidence in any corridors of organized severe risk remain too low.

A cold front will sag southward across the east coast D4/Thursday through D5/Friday as enhanced flow digs an upper level trough across Quebec southward into the eastern Great Lakes. Some low end severe potential may accompany this frontal passage each day, but uncertainty remains high in overlap of deep layer shear with better moisture/instability.

D6/Saturday through D8/Monday

Toward the end of next weekend D7/Sunday through D8/Monday, ensemble guidance is increasing in confidence for a large scale ridge to build in across the central/western US with rising heights and warming temperatures. Building surface high pressure across the Midwest/Great Lakes may shunt moisture southward to the Gulf states. Should this pattern continue to hold, severe potential will remain low through much of the CONUS.

..Thornton.. 05/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, May 25: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, May 26: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, May 27: ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, May 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, May 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, May 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, May 31: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, June 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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