Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, May 30

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, May 26	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, May 27	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, May 28	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, May 29	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, May 30	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230853 SPC AC 230853

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

A trough will deepen and shift eastward across the Pacific Northwest D4/Tuesday-D5/Wednesday. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward, stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies which will result in strengthening lee troughing across the central/northern Plains. Moisture advection will spread northward with the strengthening southerly flow across the central/northern Plains. Severe storms may occur each day across some portion of the northern and northern/central High Plains. In addition, strengthening southern stream flow may bring stronger storms across the Sierra Madre which may bring severe potential into portions of far southern Texas. For now, confidence in exact corridors of greater severe potential remains low.

By D6/Thursday-D8/Saturday, guidance suggests the western low becomes cut off and slowly wobbles towards the Great Basin before becoming absorbed back into the northern stream, likely due to the high amplitude ridging across the central. Some severe potential may extend into the eastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec in the D6-D7 period.

..Thornton.. 05/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, May 23: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, May 24: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, May 25: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, May 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, May 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, May 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, May 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, May 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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