Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 2

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, May 29	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, May 30	predictability too low
Day 6	Sunday, May 31	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, June 1	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, June 2	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260838 SPC AC 260838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper low is forecast to be located over the Great Basin on Friday/D4, moving into the northern Rockies/High Plains through Saturday/D5, and weakening all the while. Models indicate 500 mb winds by Saturday will only be in the 20-25 kt range with this feature. Therefore, despite low 60s F dewpoints, the severe risk is expected to be somewhat disorganized. However, at least low probabilities may be required in later outlook updates. Meanwhile, a low-latitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the lower MS Valley, from Saturday/D5 into Sunday/D6. Given the expected very moist air mass in place with 70s F dewpoints, and lack of capping, scattered areas of thunderstorms are likely throughout the period. Much of the activity will occur over TX and OK, where moderate instability is forecast. However, shear will be generally weak. Given the daily cycle of thunderstorms and resulting outflow boundaries across the entire region, predictability is too low to denote any concentrated severe areas. However, sporadic severe winds, perhaps isolated hail, cannot be ruled out from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley from Saturday/D5 into Monday/D7.

..Jewell.. 05/26/2026

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, May 26: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, May 27: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Thursday, May 28: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, May 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, May 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, May 31: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, June 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, June 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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