Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 3

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, May 30	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, May 31	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, June 1	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, June 2	potential too low
Day 8	Wednesday, June 3	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270746 SPC AC 270746

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

On Saturday/D4, an upper low will weaken as it moves from UT into WY, with midlevel wind speeds at or below 25 kt across the northern Rockies/Plains. This feature will persist into Sunday/D5 and Monday/D6 as it moves toward MT and eventually into Canada. Given the weak winds aloft, severe potential should be relatively low, but isolated strong storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains.

Farther south, stronger instability is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will exist. Although unstable, shear will be quite weak. Saturday/D4 may hold slightly greater severe potential compared to other days, as the southern lobe of the western trough lifts north out of the southern/central Plains. However, shear will still be marginal, and the likelihood antecedent precip/outflows lessens predictability in the weak forcing pattern. The stronger instability air mass appear most prominent through about Monday/D6. Thereafter, an upper trough may amplify over the eastern CONUS, driving high pressure south across the eastern CONUS/MS Valley.

..Jewell.. 05/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, May 27: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, May 28: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Friday, May 29: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Saturday, May 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, May 31: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, June 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, June 2: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, June 3: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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