Severe Weather Outlook

Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?

* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar

Outlook for Sunday, June 14

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, June 10	30%
Day 5	Thursday, June 11	15%
Day 6	Friday, June 12	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, June 13	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, June 14	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070841 SPC AC 070841

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

Day4/Wednesday

A concentrated area of potentially significant severe weather is expected Wednesday afternoon and evening, centered across portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa.

A number of the deterministic models have trended slightly faster with the progression of a lead short-wave trough and associated jet streak through the northern Plains into upper MS Valley. At the surface, low pressure initially over eastern SD is forecast to develop northeast along a cold front moving from the eastern Dakotas into MN. The trailing extension of the boundary is expected to move more slowly into the mid MO Valley before stalling in response to a deepening cyclone over the central High Plains.

Steep lapse rates and a very moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate to strong instability across the warm sector, with initial storms potentially developing by early afternoon from the Red River Valley into central MN. Subsequent storms are likely to develop across southern MN into IA and northern MO by mid to late afternoon. The models indicate 40+ kt deep-layer shear across the warm sector, supportive of supercells and bowing structures, capable of all severe-weather hazards. The severe-weather threat is expected to spread east through the upper Midwest during the evening hours.

### Day 5/Thursday

Both the ensemble mean and deterministic models indicate the development of a prominent mid-level low over Manitoba or northwest Ontario, with a potent short-wave trough moving through the base of that feature from the upper MS Valley through the upper Great Lakes. A belt of unseasonably strong mid-level winds will attend the short-wave trough from the central Plains into upper Great Lakes. At the surface, ensemble member clustering and the deterministic models indicate the primary low pressure over Ontario, with some signal for a secondary cyclone/frontal wave developing from the mid MO Valley into upper Midwest during the day. The associated surface front is forecast to advance through the upper Midwest into upper Great Lakes, with the trailing extension of the boundary moving into the mid MS Valley and southern Plains.

The presence of moderate to strong instability across the pre-frontal warm sector suggests the potential for severe storms from the upper Midwest into southern Plains. Within that broader envelope, a potentially more concentrated area of severe weather may materialize from parts of the upper Midwest into mid MS Valley during the afternoon and evening hours. There, the most favorable overlap of the forcing for ascent, sufficient vertical shear, and ample instability are expected to reside.

### Day 6/Friday

The ensembles and majority of deterministic models indicate the Day5/Thursday upper Great lakes short-wave trough will lift northeast into Ontario and Quebec. At the surface, the models suggest that a weakening cold front will advance into the Northeast and through the OH Valley. Some severe-weather threat could develop along the front by afternoon; however, the models suggest that the boundary will become increasingly displaced from the strongest mid-level winds and associated vertical shear. Isolated severe storms also appear possible in the vicinity of a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains.

### Days 7-8/Saturday and Sunday

The ensemble mean solutions indicate some potential for mid-level troughing to develop from the northern Rockies into northern Plains next weekend, which is supported by a number of the deterministic models. At the surface, there are indications that a frontal system may stretch from the upper Midwest or Great Lakes into central High Plains, where some severe-weather threat could develop.

..Mead.. 06/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, June 7: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Monday, June 8: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, June 9: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Wednesday, June 10: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Thursday, June 11: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, June 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, June 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, June 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.