Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, July 6

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, July 2	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, July 3	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, July 4	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, July 5	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, July 6	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290859 SPC AC 290859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

The broad trough in the West and ridge in the East will persist through the remainder of the week. A moist airmass across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies will support repeated days of convective activity. Large-scale forcing will remain weak, but shortwave troughs emanating from the western trough will promote development within the Plains and the Upper Midwest where a stalled surface boundary will be positioned. Both Thursday and Friday show potential for MCS development from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Friday will likely have a more prominent shortwave trough as a lifting mechanism. Where this potential severe weather will be focused is not certain given the expected convection that will occur each day prior. For Saturday, some models show the shortwave trough moving into the Upper Midwest where another round of convection may occur. Severe probabilities are certainly possible in the coming days as confidence continues to increase.

Another area to watch this week will be the Northeast. Here, stronger northwesterly flow at mid levels will continue into part of the weekend. Depending on how the shortwave trough evolves in the Upper Midwest, this feature may eventually move into the Northeast and promote thunderstorm development late this weekend into next week. Predictability remains too low for highlights, however.

..Wendt.. 06/29/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, June 29: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Tuesday, June 30: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, July 1: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Thursday, July 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, July 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, July 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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