Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, July 10

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, July 6	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, July 7	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, July 8	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, July 9	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, July 10	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030902 SPC AC 030902

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance suggests that a modest mid-level ridge, along an axis from the eastern Great Basin into the Upper Midwest by early next week, may gradually become suppressed by a low-amplitude short wave trough emerging from the Great Basin by the middle of next week. It appears that this will occur as a much more substantive trough and embedded low, within the stronger westerlies confined to the higher latitudes, progress inland across British Columbia and the Canadian Rockies. This could be accompanied by some potential for organized severe thunderstorm development across parts of eastern Montana into the Dakotas by next Tuesday and/or Wednesday, but enough spread persists within latest model output to preclude 15 percent or greater severe probabilities at this time.

A preceding trough within the stronger westerlies is forecast to slowly progress east of the Canadian Prairies through Hudson Bay, Ontario, Quebec and the remainder of the eastern Canadian Provinces by late next week. It is possible that a corridor of boundary-layer moistening and destabilization ahead of an associated cold front could support increasing risk for thunderstorms across parts of the lower Great Lakes through New England by next Thursday into Friday. However, the extent of this potential, and the degree to which it could pose a risk for damaging wind gusts remains uncertain at this time.

Otherwise, severe potential in lower-latitudes, if any, will likely generally be associated with sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve and of rather low predictability at this time range.

..Kerr.. 07/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, July 3: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Saturday, July 4: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, July 5: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, July 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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