Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 8

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, July 4	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, July 5	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, July 6	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, July 7	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, July 8	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010900 SPC AC 010900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Flow aloft will become more zonal by this weekend as the upper-level ridge flattens and begins to shift/build westward. The strongest mid-level winds will be present across the northern tier of the CONUS. An upper-level low in the vicinity of the Canadian Maritimes will bring a belt of stronger mid-level winds across the Northeast. Some southward movement of a surface boundary can be expected within the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic this weekend into early next week. At the same time, northwesterly flow aloft will develop over the High Plains along with moisture pushing farther northwest into the region.

Severe potential will largely be driven by mesoscale features such as localized convergence along stalled/weak boundaries as well as MCVs from prior convection. The airmass across much of the Plains into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic will be quite unstable and strong heating will occur underneath the increasingly muted upper ridge. Subtle lift from shortwave troughs may promote greater convective coverage in parts of the Mid-Atlantic early next week. However, the stronger, but still modest, shear will be displaced from the most buoyant airmass. Additional convection will be possible along the surface boundary within the Midwest/Ohio Valley, but shear will generally be weak. More organized convection may also develop within the northwest flow pattern in the High Plains, but predictability remains low as to where this will eventually occur.

..Wendt.. 07/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, July 1: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Thursday, July 2: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Friday, July 3: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, July 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, July 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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