Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 7

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, July 3	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, July 4	predictability too low
Day 6	Sunday, July 5	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, July 6	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, July 7	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300838 SPC AC 300838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper-level flow is expected to become more zonal across the CONUS this Friday. The upper ridge within the East will lose amplitude and develop westward and amplify once again into early next week. The exact structure of the upper ridge does vary within model guidance. At the surface, a mostly stationary boundary will continue to be modified/reinforced by convection occurring along/near it on preceding days. As the upper ridge builds in the West, this boundary will likely get pushed farther south within the areas east of the Mississippi by the developing surface high in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Moisture will then be transported farther north/west in the Plains/High Plains beginning sometime this weekend. The general theme for the extended forecast will be where subtle shortwaves/MCVs will propagate and spur convection along the boundary.

For Friday, another MCS is possible along the surface boundary similar to D3/Thursday. Uncertainty in how Thursday's convection will impact the location of the boundary and most favorable environment reduces confidence on where the greatest severe threat will be. Into the weekend and early next week, some severe threat is possible in parts of the eastern CONUS in association with MCV from convection in the Plains/Midwest. Additional severe storms could occur as northwesterly flow aloft develops in the High Plains. There are still enough differences in the upper-level pattern between medium range guidance that predictability of any higher threat corridors is low.

..Wendt.. 06/30/2026

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, June 30: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, July 1: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, July 2: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, July 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, July 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, July 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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