Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, July 11

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, July 7	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, July 8	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, July 9	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, July 10	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, July 11	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040843 SPC AC 040843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Based on the latest medium-range guidance, it appears that considerable amplification within the flow across the mid- and subtropical latitudes of the Pacific during this period may lead to the evolution of an increasingly prominent high becoming centered near or to the northeast of the Four Corners by early next weekend. Surrounding ridging may encompass much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains, as far north as the Canadian Prairies.

Associated monsoonal moisture return into parts of the Southwest may be accompanied by increasing convective potential that could include evolving clusters capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts. However, much as will likely remain the case in preceding days across and east of the Rockies, organized severe weather potential, if any, will be strongly influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and with low predictability at this extended time frame.

..Kerr.. 07/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, July 4: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 45%
Sunday, July 5: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Monday, July 6: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Tuesday, July 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, July 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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