Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, July 12

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, July 8	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, July 9	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, July 10	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, July 11	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, July 12	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050851 SPC AC 050851

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

In the wake of a short wave trough pivoting inland of the British Columbia coast by mid week, medium-range guidance continues to indicate the gradual development of large-scale ridging across the much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains and Mississippi Valley late this week through next weekend. It appears that a center of seasonably high mid-level heights will evolve and develop northeastward, west through north of the Four Corners, into northern Colorado by the end of the period. Prior to and as this occurs, this may be preceded by the transition of a generally zonal to broadly cyclonic regime across and east of the northern Great Plains through northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, but embedded short wave developments remain rather unclear.

Regardless, it still appears that substantive potential for organized severe thunderstorm development, if any, will largely remain influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and of particularly low predictability at this extended time frame.

..Kerr.. 07/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, July 5: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Monday, July 6: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, July 7: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, July 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, July 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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