Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, July 13

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, July 9	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, July 10	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, July 11	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, July 12	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, July 13	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060900 SPC AC 060900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week. How far north and northeast this builds remains unclear; however, a plume of very warm elevated mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development.

It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast. By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis, which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic. Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could change sometime in later outlook updates for this period.

..Kerr.. 07/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, July 6: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, July 7: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, July 8: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Thursday, July 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, July 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, July 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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