Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 28

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, July 24	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, July 25	predictability too low
Day 6	Sunday, July 26	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, July 27	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, July 28	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210718 SPC AC 210718

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

Great Lakes/Midwest

An amplified upper ridge will persist across the Plains and Rockies through early next week. Periods of strengthening northwesterly mid/upper flow are expected on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the Canadian Prairies and glance the Great Lakes vicinity, mainly Day 5-7/Sat-Mon. This could support areas of severe thunderstorm potential across parts of the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley vicinity during this time as stronger northwesterly flow overspreads a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, both traditional physics-based NWP and ML/AI NWP are inconsistent and/or show relatively low/broad probability areas – increasing uncertainty in timing and spatial delineation of severe potential. Given the proximity to the upper ridge, capping may be a concern. Trends will be monitored and severe probabilities may become necessary is confidence increases in subsequent outlooks.

..Leitman.. 07/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, July 21: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 45%
Wednesday, July 22: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 15%
Thursday, July 23: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, July 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, July 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, July 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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