Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, July 27

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, July 23	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, July 24	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, July 25	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, July 26	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, July 27	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200802 SPC AC 200802

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. through early next week. Meanwhile, a strong, amplified upper ridge will envelop the western half of the CONUS. This should largely limit greater severe potential beneath the upper ridge, though some daily mesoscale-driven strong thunderstorm risk could develop over parts of the Plains as moist southerly low-level flow maintains moisture across the central portions of the country. While any stronger flow aloft will mostly remain north of the international border, some model guidance trends over the last 24 hours indicate strengthening northwesterly flow aloft is possible as a shortwave impulse or two migrates atop the upper ridge and over parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes. This could support an increasing severe risk across these areas over the weekend, though confidence is too low for any 15 percent probability areas at this time.

..Leitman.. 07/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, July 20: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, July 21: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 45%
Wednesday, July 22: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, July 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, July 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, July 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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