Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 29

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, July 25	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, July 26	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, July 27	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, July 28	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, July 29	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220726 SPC AC 220726

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper Midwest to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic

An upper ridge centered over the High Plains will persist through the middle of next week. Meanwhile, upper troughing will be maintained over the eastern U.S. Periods of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft are expected across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic on the eastern periphery of the Plains upper ridge. Several shortwave impulses are forecast to develop southeast from Canada within this northwest flow regime. This could support daily severe thunderstorm chances from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley, and possibly the Mid-Atlantic. However, the timing of these features is uncertain, and midlevel capping could limit the spatial extent of severe potential. It is likely that portions of the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley will need severe probabilities in later outlooks, particularly for Day 4-6/Sat-Mon, and possibly the mid-Atlantic by Day 7/Tue. However, confidence in where this risk will develop each day is too low for 15 percent delineation at this time.

..Leitman.. 07/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, July 22: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, July 23: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, July 24: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Saturday, July 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, July 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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