Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, July 30

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, July 26	15%
Day 5	Monday, July 27	15%
Day 6	Tuesday, July 28	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, July 29	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, July 30	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230726 SPC AC 230726

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Sun-Mon – Upper Midwest toward the Ohio Valley

Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley on Sunday and Monday as several shortwave impulses migrate through the area on the eastern periphery of a strong upper ridge over the Plains. A seasonally very moist airmass will reside across much of these areas, supporting strong destabilization each day. On Sunday, a corridor of severe thunderstorm potential appears possible across parts of MN/WI toward northern IA/IL as a weak shortwave impulse initially over the Dakotas spreads east. While details regarding storm coverage remain uncertain, sufficient deep layer shear and strong instability will be in place, and at least isolated storm clusters could pose a risk for damaging winds.

By Monday, an upper shortwave trough will emanating from an upper low near Hudson Bay will dig southward across the Great Lakes. This will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a surface low may move eastward across the Great Lakes near the international border while a stronger nocturnal low-level jet develops over parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This stronger flow will overspread a moist and unstable airmass, and potential for thunderstorm clusters developing into an MCS appears possible.

While details remain uncertain regarding convective evolution and coverage on Sunday and Monday, through broader synoptic pattern appears favorable for at least isolated severe thunderstorms. The 15 percent severe areas may shift some in the coming days as details become more clear.

Days 6-8/Tue-Thu

It is possible some severe potential could shift east/southeast on Tuesday toward the central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic. Deep-layer northwesterly flow will not be as strong as prior days, but could still be sufficient for some organized severe risk. Confidence in where greater risk corridors may develop is low, and will largely be influenced by convective evolution in the Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday periods.

A strong upper ridge will shift west across the western U.S. late in the period, bringing a broad area of generally weak deep-layer northwesterly flow to the eastern half of the CONUS. Some thunderstorm potential is likely within this typical summertime pattern across the Plain into the East, but severe potential is uncertain.

..Leitman.. 07/23/2026

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, July 23: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Friday, July 24: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, July 25: ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, July 26: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, July 27: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, July 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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