Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, July 31

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, July 27	15%
Day 5	Tuesday, July 28	15%
Day 6	Wednesday, July 29	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, July 30	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, July 31	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240837 SPC AC 240837

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Monday

A prominent upper high will remain centered over the central and southern Plains with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow forecast along the periphery of that feature from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Within that flow regime, a short-wave trough is forecast to translate through the Great Lakes in tandem with a surface low and trailing cold front. A hot and moist boundary layer is expected ahead of the front, yielding moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Despite veered low-level winds, strengthening mid/upper-level winds in the exit region of a jet streak will contribute to sufficient vertical shear for organized severe storms across portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley Monday afternoon into night.

### Day 5/Tuesday

The Day 4/Monday short-wave trough is forecast to evolve into an upper low across southwest ON and the lower Great Lakes with an associated belt of stronger cyclonic flow developing from the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and NC. At the surface, an area of low pressure will develop from the lower Great Lakes into central NY with a trailing cold front advancing through the upper OH Valley, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic.

Thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning along and ahead of the front from the lower Great Lakes and upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Stronger heating is anticipated to the south of the early-day storms from the southern Mid-Atlantic into NC, where moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast. The strongest instability will coincide with modestly strong deep-layer shear to support some severe weather threat in those areas Tuesday afternoon and evening.

### Days 6-8/Wednesday-Friday

The 00Z ensemble means depict a slight westward regression of the dominant mid/upper-level high with persistent troughing along the East Coast. On the periphery of the high, a notable short-wave trough is forecast to progress from the Canadian Rockies on Wednesday through the Prairie Provinces on Thursday with modest height falls along the international border. By Friday, there is some model signal for another short-wave trough to move into the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes regions. At the surface, a more substantial cold front is projected to move into the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest and Great Lakes by Friday.

A few severe storms appear possible in the Southeast and northern Plains on Wednesday, the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes on Friday. Confidence in the magnitude and areal extent of the threat is currently too low to delineate additional areas.

..Mead.. 07/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, July 24: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, July 25: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, July 26: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, July 27: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, July 28: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, July 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 31: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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