Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, August 17

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, August 13	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, August 14	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, August 15	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, August 16	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, August 17	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100854 SPC AC 100854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6

A mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward through the north-central U.S. on Thursday and into the Great Lakes region on Friday. At the surface, a moist axis is forecast to remain in place from the central Plains east-southeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Moderate to strong instability along the moist axis will make isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. Additionally, a severe threat may develop near mid-level shortwave troughs that are forecast to move through the northern Plains and Mid-Atlantic on Friday.

On Saturday, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Great Lakes region. Moderate to strong instability may be in place over much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio by afternoon. Along the northern edge of the stronger instability, isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible from Lower Michigan eastward into the central Appalachians Saturday afternoon. Additional severe storms may develop along an axis of moderate instability over parts of the central Plains in the afternoon and evening.

Concerning the severe potential from Thursday to Saturday, considerable variance exists among the model solutions concerning the position of features, suggesting uncertainty is still too great to add a threat area.

Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8

From Sunday into Monday, a broad cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to develop over the northeastern U.S. A cold front is forecast to move southward across the central and southern Appalachians. This boundary would be the primary focus for convective development each afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F along with moderate to strong instability would likely support an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the front. For this reason, predictability is low at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 08/10/2026

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National Risk Overview

Monday, August 10: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, August 11: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, August 12: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, August 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, August 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, August 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, August 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, August 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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