Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, August 18

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, August 14	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, August 15	predictability too low
Day 6	Sunday, August 16	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, August 17	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, August 18	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110813 SPC AC 110813

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Friday

Moderate to strong destabilization will again be possible on Friday, near and south of a front extending from the central Plains and Midwest into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the exact frontal position, but strong storms will be possible in its vicinity. Most guidance depicts rising midlevel heights and modest deep-layer flow/shear in the vicinity of the frontal zone, which may tend to keep the severe threat isolated. One possible exception will be in the Carolinas and southern VA, where the glancing influence of a seasonably deep upper trough over the Northeast may result in a somewhat more organized severe threat, if sufficient destabilization can occur.

D5/Saturday - D6/Sunday

Some dampening of the upper ridge (potentially aided by one or more MCVs emerging from the High Plains) may result in severe potential emerging this weekend across parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. However, details regarding timing of any shortwave troughs and position of the primary frontal zone remain quite uncertain.

D7/Monday - D8/Tuesday

Extended-range guidance generally suggests potential for a northwesterly flow regime to develop from the northern Plains into parts of the East by early next week. Predictability remains quite low regarding the extent to which stronger deep-layer flow impinges upon favorable instability, but at least isolated severe potential may eventually develop from parts of the north-central CONUS into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.

..Dean.. 08/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, August 11: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Wednesday, August 12: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, August 13: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Friday, August 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, August 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, August 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, August 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, August 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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