Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, September 3

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, August 30	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, August 31	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, September 1	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, September 2	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, September 3	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270758 SPC AC 270758

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Sunday - Northern Plains

Some severe weather is possible across the northern Plains on Sunday, but details remain unclear. The primary mid-level shortwave trough and associated large-scale ascent is expected to traverse northern Montana and North Dakota. However, the greater instability is focused farther southeast across eastern South Dakota and southwest Montana. The ECMWF shows enough instability developing farther north into south-central North Dakota to support some severe weather threat. The uncertainties regarding destabilization and storm coverage preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.

D5 and Beyond

The forecast next week features multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and considerable uncertainty with the timing of these features. However, there is a larger scale trend toward a ridge building across the Plains with northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/New England. Moderate to strong instability along this corridor will support some severe weather potential next week. However, specific areas of greater severe weather potential will depend on the timing and amplitude of embedded mid-level shortwave troughs. Therefore, no probabilities can be added at this time.

..Bentley.. 08/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, August 27: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Friday, August 28: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, August 29: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, August 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, August 31: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, September 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, September 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, September 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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