Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, September 4

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Friday, September 4

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, August 31	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, September 1	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, September 2	15%
Day 7	Thursday, September 3	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, September 4	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280849 SPC AC 280849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge will meander eastward across the central and eastern CONUS through the week, with multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and other smaller embedded impulses poised to pivot around the ridge and traverse the northern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Several days of at least scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected along the periphery of the upper ridge as appreciably strong mid-level flow overspreads a seasonably moist boundary layer, especially during the middle of the week. By the end of the week, appreciable instability builds back into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, but predictability is too low to ascertain any localized severe potential this far in advance.

OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England

The strongest signal for severe thunderstorms currently exists for Days 5-6 (Tuesday-Wednesday). Guidance differs on the details regarding placement and timing of mid-level troughs/impulses on Day 5 (Tuesday), though severe thunderstorms will probably develop somewhere between the eastern Great Lakes to the Eastern Seaboard. Once details become clearer on where storm development is most likely, 15 percent severe probabilities will likely be introduced.

For Day 6 (Wednesday), there is a general consensus among medium-range guidance that at least one impulse will traverse the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England corridor. A 50+ kt mid-level northwesterly 500 mb jet will overspread mid 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding both 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear amid a convective signal. As such, a 15 percent severe area has been introduced for Wednesday where these aforementioned ingredients best overlap.

..Squitieri.. 08/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, August 28: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, August 29: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, August 30: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, August 31: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, September 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, September 2: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, September 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, September 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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