Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, August 31

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, August 27	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, August 28	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, August 29	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, August 30	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, August 31	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240859 SPC AC 240859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

A strong mid-level ridge will be centered over the Rockies on Thursday with a broad trough centered across the Great Lakes. The ridge will break down over the weekend with a more zonal flow with embedded shortwave troughs extending from the Northwest to the northern Plains and into the Northeast. Beyond this weekend, guidance differs on the evolution of the pattern with considerable uncertainty.

D7/Sunday to D8/Monday - Northern Plains

Guidance continues to consolidate around an unseasonably strong mid-level shortwave trough across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday and Monday. There is still some spread around the timing of this trough and also the degree of destabilization ahead of it. However, despite these timing differences, a moderately strong signal for an increasing severe weather threat in this period appears to be emerging as a trough with a consistent convective signal is shown by the ECMWF and GFS and also by the AI-GFS and AI-ECMWF. Ensemble guidance shows a flattened ridge with a mid-level jet streak across this region during the same timeframe. Surprisingly, AI/ML guidance shows very little signal for a severe threat across this region. Analysis of individual ensemble members suggests this is likely reflective of the uncertainty in timing and location of this trough and greater spread among the ensemble guidance. Nonetheless, the potential for an organized severe weather threat across the northern Plains and/or Upper Midwest late this weekend into early next week appears to be increasing. If guidance continues to consolidate with decreasing spread about the timing of the trough, severe weather probabilities may eventually be needed.

..Bentley.. 08/24/2026

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National Risk Overview

Monday, August 24: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, August 25: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, August 26: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Thursday, August 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, August 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, August 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, August 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, August 31: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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