Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, August 29

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, August 25	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, August 26	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, August 27	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, August 28	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, August 29	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220742 SPC AC 220742

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

Overall, the long range pattern will feature a ridge centered over the southern High Plains which may shift slightly west through the period. Some severe weather may occur within the northwesterly flow pattern from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley Tuesday/D4 to Thursday/D6, but confidence is not high enough for probabilities at this time. There is an emerging signal for a seasonably strong high pressure to build into the eastern CONUS and shunt most of the richer low-level moisture to the Gulf Coast states. If this occurs, a relative lull in severe weather potential would exist from the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast to the Upper Midwest into next weekend.

..Bentley.. 08/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, August 22: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, August 23: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, August 24: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Tuesday, August 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, August 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, August 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, August 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, August 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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