Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, August 28

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, August 24	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, August 25	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, August 26	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, August 27	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, August 28	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210854 SPC AC 210854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid-level trough will move across the Northeast on Monday and the surface front will be mostly offshore, reducing the severe weather threat. As this trough departs, ridging will build across the Rockies. This will eventually set up a pattern featuring individual mid-level shortwave troughs within northwesterly flow from the northern Plains to the Midwest. Some severe weather will likely occur with mid-level shortwave troughs within this flow, but these details likely will not become more clear until the short term.

Model consensus indicates a stronger mid-level shortwave trough traversing the Pacific Northwest on D7/Thursday. This pattern would be favorable for some severe weather threat across Montana, but at this time, it appears moisture will stay farther east. Therefore, no severe weather is anticipated.

..Bentley.. 08/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, August 21: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, August 22: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, August 23: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, August 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, August 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, August 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, August 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, August 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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