Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, August 30

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, August 26	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, August 27	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, August 28	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, August 29	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, August 30	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230838 SPC AC 230838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday to D6/Friday

A mid-level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes region while the mid-level ridge maintains its amplitude across the Rockies. Within this pattern, some severe weather potential may exist as a cold front moves from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. However, the signal is not that strong and thus, it is unclear if more than an isolated threat will exist; but the evolution of this front and the instability associated with it will be monitored.

D7/Saturday to D8/Sunday

There is still a fair amount of uncertainty with the evolution of the pattern by next weekend, but a general trend toward flattening of the upper-level ridge is apparent in the deterministic, AI, and ensemble guidance next weekend. This includes moderate flow within the zonal region across the central/northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. This period will need to be watched closely as strong instability and moderate shear appear to overlap across a relatively broad region, which should support diurnal thunderstorm activity given the flattening of the ridge. The specific timing/location of these threats will depend on evolution of the pattern and the embedded shortwave troughs within the flow. However, it is worth noting that the EC-AIFS and the AIGFS both have a signal for a more consolidated mid-level shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains on Sunday/D8, which has also been consistently shown by the EC-AIFS for the past 4 runs. If this trend continues, there may be opportunities for probabilities to be added in later outlooks.

..Bentley.. 08/23/2026

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, August 23: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, August 24: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, August 25: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, August 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, August 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, August 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, August 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, August 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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