Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, September 5

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Saturday, September 5

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, September 1	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, September 2	15%
Day 6	Thursday, September 3	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, September 4	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, September 5	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290855 SPC AC 290855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium range guidance consensus depicts a persistent ridge fortified across the central CONUS through the Days 4-8 (Tuesday-Saturday) period. Multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and smaller scale impulses will pivot around the broader upper ridge and traverse the Pacific Northwest to northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast through the week. The best chance for rounds of organized strong to severe thunderstorms will be with impulses overspreading a moist boundary layer from the Upper MS Valley to the southern New England/Mid-Atlantic regions. Details regarding the timing and placement of some of these impulses varies among medium-range guidance, rendering predictability too low for several potential severe scenarios.

Days 4-7 (Tuesday-Friday) - Northeast/Mid-Atlantic

The Northeast to Mid-Atlantic will experience the east-northeast periphery of the aforementioned upper ridge, with multiple impulses expected to overspread the region through the middle of the week. At least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected each day Tuesday-Friday. At the moment, medium range guidance consensus shows the strongest signal in a mid-level impulse impinging on southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic on Day 5/Wednesday, where severe probabilities have been maintained.

Guidance also depicts these same regions to have adequate vertical wind shear and instability Tuesday and Thursday, perhaps even extending into Day 7/Friday. Like Wednesday, several members of medium range ML/AI generated guidance also has severe probabilities over these regions Days 4-7. Unlike Wednesday though, deterministic medium range guidance varies in place and time of the more subtle impulses expected to support severe weather over the Northeast. It is acknowledged that severe probabilities will likely be needed in the future. However, probabilities have been withheld outside of Wednesday out of prudence given the degree of changes in forecast details expected in the coming days.

..Squitieri.. 08/29/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, August 29: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, August 30: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, August 31: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Tuesday, September 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, September 2: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, September 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, September 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, September 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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