Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, September 6

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Sunday, September 6

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, September 2	15%
Day 5	Thursday, September 3	15%
Day 6	Friday, September 4	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, September 5	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, September 6	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300837 SPC AC 300837

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge will remain centered over the TN Valley/central Appalachians through the end of the week before retrograding westward toward the Plains by next weekend. Multiple mid-level impulses and shortwave troughs will traverse the upper ridge this week before upper troughing dominates the Interior West toward the end of the extended forecast period. The best chances for severe thunderstorms will be with the aforementioned impulses traversing the ridge over the Great Lakes to the East Coast, particularly during the middle of the week.

Days 4-6 (Wednesday-Friday) - Northeast to Mid-Atlantic

Severe probabilities have been maintained for portions of the lower Hudson Valley into the Mid-Atlantic Day 4/Wednesday, as guidance consensus continues to show a well-timed shortwave trough overspreading this region. Medium-range guidance continues to show a convective precipitation signal accompanying this impulse along with appreciable buoyancy and vertical wind shear. It should be noted that convective overturning from Day 3 (Tuesday) storms may stabilize part of this area, with the specific location of storms becoming dependent on residual baroclinic boundaries. As such, the exact placement of Wednesday's severe probabilities may need to be adjusted accordingly.

Likewise, for Day 5/Thursday, another mid-level impulse will traverse the northeast extent of the upper ridge and overspread the Mid-Atlantic. Given adequate buoyancy and shear likely remaining in place, 15 percent severe probabilities have been introduced. As with the previous day, these probabilities may need some adjustment in future outlooks based on where airmass modification along baroclinic zones occurs.

Medium-range guidance continues to show a pronounced mid-level impulse, accompanied by adequate deep-layer shear and buoyancy, impinging on the Mid-Atlantic on Day 6/Friday, which would support at least an isolated severe threat. ML/AI guidance also suggests that the Friday severe threat would encompass the ending stages of a potential multi-day severe episode. Given the multiple preceding days of storms and constant shift in favorable corridors modulated by baroclinic zones, confidence is very low for realistically pinpointing a focused severe area. However, it appears the Delmarva may be the most likely area for seeing organized storm activity.

..Squitieri.. 08/30/2026

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, August 30: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, August 31: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, September 1: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, September 2: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, September 3: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, September 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, September 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, September 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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