Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, September 7

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Monday, September 7

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, September 3	15%
Day 5	Friday, September 4	15%
Day 6	Saturday, September 5	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, September 6	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, September 7	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310846 SPC AC 310846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge will persist across the TN Valley this week before retrograding to the Plains states and further amplifying into early next week. As this occurs, upper troughing will also amplify along the East Coast and Interior West. The best chances for severe storms will be closer to the East Coast Days 4-5 (Thursday-Friday) as a series of mid-level impulses will crest the Ridge and traverse the Mid Atlantic, where instability will be present.

Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) - Mid-Atlantic Region

The amplification of the broader upper trough along the East Coast will result in a farther southward shift of accompanying mid-level impulses, which will promote deep-layer ascent over the Mid-Atlantic region. The severe threat may also be modulated farther south given established baroclinic zones from prior rounds of storms. On Thursday, storms should develop along a differential heating zone somewhere around Delmarva or points immediately west. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F beneath seasonably cool temperatures aloft will yield 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given over 30 kts of effective bulk shear expected, multicells, supercells, and short bowing segments will likely develop, accompanied by a severe wind/hail threat.

For Day 5 (Friday), the upper trough will amplify further, allowing for a surface differential heating zone to become established across the southern Mid-Atlantic, where adequate moisture and instability will likely coincide with modest vertical wind shear, supporting another day of severe potential. Damaging gusts will likely be the main threat.

Some lingering severe potential may exist across the Carolinas on Day 6/Saturday before the upper trough departs the region, as indicated by some ML/AI guidance. However, predictability on the timing of details (i.e. baroclinic boundaries and overlapping corridors of vertical wind shear) is too low for the introduction of probabilities this outlook.

Day 4 (Thursday) - Upper Midwest

Some guidance depicts the potential for severe thunderstorms along an effective warm front across portions of the Upper Midwest, where rich low-level moisture will reside ahead of a surface trough. Given stronger mid-level flow and cooler temperatures overspreading the warm front, enough shear and instability may manifest to support a severe threat. While calibrated guidance has been ramping up severe probabilities over this area, synoptic features (such as a pronounced mid-level impulse) do not appear strongly evident in deterministic guidance, precluding the addition of severe probabilities to this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 08/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, August 31: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, September 1: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, September 2: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, September 3: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, September 4: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, September 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, September 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, September 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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