Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, October 28

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Wednesday, October 28

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, October 24	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, October 25	potential too low
Day 6	Monday, October 26	potential too low
Day 7	Tuesday, October 27	potential too low
Day 8	Wednesday, October 28	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210800 SPC AC 210800

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid-level trough gradually progressing across the Rockies this weekend will eject into the Plains, with the prevailing mid-level flow pattern becoming more zonal and progressive through next week. Surface high pressure and attendant subsidence will overspread most of the CONUS east of the Rockies, limiting thunderstorm development through at least early next week. The best chance for any severe weather (albeit sparse) would be across the southern Rockies Day 4 (Saturday), where a buoyant airmass will reside ahead of the upper trough prior to ejection.

Medium range guidance depicts the eastward progression and amplification of another upper trough toward the middle of next week, which should encourage strong surface troughing and the progression of a cold front across the central U.S. The southern extent of the front may interact with a potentially buoyant airmass over the southern Plains, most likely around Day 8 (Wednesday) or beyond. While at least isolated severe storms are possible, questions regarding the placement and timing of the front, and lack of consistency among guidance precludes severe probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 10/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, October 21: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, October 22: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Friday, October 23: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Saturday, October 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, October 25: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, October 26: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, October 27: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, October 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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