Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, October 29

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Thursday, October 29

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, October 25	potential too low
Day 5	Monday, October 26	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, October 27	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, October 28	potential too low
Day 8	Thursday, October 29	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220755 SPC AC 220755

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

A progressive upper-air pattern is expected through much of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs expected to traverse the central and northern CONUS through the extended period. Surface troughing will accompany several of these passing upper waves, encouraging the development of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, deterministic medium-range guidance shows minimal convective instability associated with these surface troughs, which should limit the potential for severe thunderstorms into next week.

..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, October 22: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Friday, October 23: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, October 24: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, October 25: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, October 26: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, October 27: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, October 28: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, October 29: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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