Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, October 30

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Friday, October 30

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, October 26	potential too low
Day 5	Tuesday, October 27	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, October 28	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, October 29	potential too low
Day 8	Friday, October 30	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230748 SPC AC 230748

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

A series of upper troughs will move across portions of the northern and central U.S. during the Day 4-8 period. Around the middle of the work (Day 6/Wed), a larger-scale upper trough is forecast to develop across the Plains and Midwest, and eventually the eastern U.S. by the weekend. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. While this will likely support some thunderstorm and shower activity, boundary layer moisture will remain limited, and only weak instability is forecast and will largely remain displaced from stronger deep-layer flow. Overall, severe potential appears low through Day 8/Fri.

..Leitman.. 10/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, October 23: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, October 24: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, October 25: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, October 26: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, October 27: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, October 28: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, October 29: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, October 30: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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