Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, October 31

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Saturday, October 31

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, October 27	potential too low
Day 5	Wednesday, October 28	potential too low
Day 6	Thursday, October 29	potential too low
Day 7	Friday, October 30	potential too low
Day 8	Saturday, October 31	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240750 SPC AC 240750

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8/Tue-Sat period. An upper shortwave trough will traverse the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. As this occurs, a low-amplitude and weak mid/upper flow regime will overspread much of the central/southern Plains toward the eastern U.S. Strong surface high pressure over the East and prior cold frontal passages across parts of the Plains will result in only modest boundary layer moisture beneath the progressive mid-week upper shortwave trough.

Later in the period, upper troughing will deepen across the western U.S. Meanwhile, an amplifying upper ridge is expected across the East, resulting in broad southwesterly mid/upper flow across the Plains. Some modest moisture return could occur across the Plains within the southwesterly flow regime, but any deep moisture is forecast to remain confined across TX and the Gulf Coast. While periods of thunderstorms are possible late in the period across the Plains, overall severe potential is likely to remain limited due to a lack of focused large scale ascent and a modest thermodynamic environment.

..Leitman.. 10/24/2026

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, October 24: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, October 25: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: low
Monday, October 26: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, October 27: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, October 28: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, October 29: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, October 30: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, October 31: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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