Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you like ~~lofi music~~ whatever music Hayley put on and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!

* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with

Outlook for Thursday, March 12

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, March 8	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, March 9	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, March 10	15%
Day 7	Wednesday, March 11	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, March 12	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050936 SPC AC 050936

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5

A moist airmass in the Gulf Coast region on Sunday will advect northward into the east-central U.S. on Monday. Over the top of this airmass, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be limited on both days, isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon in areas that heat up sufficiently. The greatest potential for severe storms appears to be on Monday afternoon in the Ark-La-Tex, where moisture and low-level flow are currently forecast to be maximized.

Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8

On Tuesday, model forecasts move an upper-level system across northern Mexico, and retain southwesterly mid-level flow over much of the south-central U.S. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast over much of the southern and central Plains eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. It appears that large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level trough will gradually increase over the southern and central Plains on Tuesday. In response, scattered thunderstorms should develop over parts of the moist sector Tuesday afternoon and evening. Although model forecasts have slowed the progression of the upper-level low, a belt of strong mid-level flow is still forecast over the south-central U.S. on Tuesday. This suggests that deep-layer shear will support severe thunderstorm development, potentially across a broad area. The severe threat is expected to continue from evening into the overnight period as the upper-level trough approaches.

On Wednesday, the upper-level trough and an associated cold front is forecast to move into the western Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the system, a moist and unstable airmass appears likely by afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop near and ahead of the front could have a severe threat. However, there are still questions about the timing of the trough and front. If model runs continue to suggest that the system will move into the western Gulf Coast states on Wednesday, then a risk area may need to be added. An isolated risk may also develop on Wednesday northeastward ahead of the front in parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

On Thursday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as the cold front moves offshore into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat would be possible along parts of the Eastern Seaboard before the front passes. However, uncertainty at this extended range is considerable.

..Broyles.. 03/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, March 5: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 15%
Friday, March 6: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 30%
Saturday, March 7: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, March 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, March 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, March 10: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, March 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, March 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.