Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you like ~~lofi music~~ whatever music Hayley put on and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!

* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with

Outlook for Tuesday, March 31

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, March 27	potential too low
Day 5	Saturday, March 28	potential too low
Day 6	Sunday, March 29	potential too low
Day 7	Monday, March 30	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, March 31	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240842 SPC AC 240842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

Widespread severe thunderstorm potential appears limited through the remainder of March amid persistent upper-level ridging across the central and western CONUS. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may materialize across portions of the TN Valley and Mid-Atlantic on D4/Friday as a strong cold front pushes east/southeast towards the East Coast and northern Gulf. However, limited mid-level lapse rates across the southeastern U.S. will likely modulate the potential for severe thunderstorms. Surface high pressure building across the eastern Plains and OH Valley in the wake of the cold front - combined with the re-amplification of the upper ridge over the western U.S. - will further limit severe thunderstorm potential for much of the weekend and very early next week.

A gradual eastward translation of the surface high will likely promote the initial stages of moisture into the central U.S. around the D7/Mon or D8/Tues time frame. Most deterministic solutions and ensemble systems hint at an upper-level regime shift as the upper ridge shifts east and southwesterly flow becomes more prominent over the Southwest. This may support some increase in severe weather potential by the middle of next week, and possibly as early D8/Tuesday, but predictability at this range appears very limited.

..Moore.. 03/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, March 24: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, March 25: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, March 26: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, March 27: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, March 28: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, March 29: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, March 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, March 31: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.