Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, April 1

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, March 28	potential too low
Day 5	Sunday, March 29	potential too low
Day 6	Monday, March 30	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, March 31	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, April 1	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250844 SPC AC 250844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe thunderstorm potential remains limited for this weekend, though a gradual increase in some severe threat is anticipated by the middle of next week. In the wake of a cold frontal passage on D3/Friday into D4/Saturday, surface high pressure building over the eastern Plains and OH Valley will maintain dry and stable conditions for most regions east of the Rockies. Concurrently, a slight re-amplification of an upper-level ridge this weekend over the Southwest/West Coast will maintain warm and dry conditions for the southwestern CONUS. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably consistent signal in the slow eastward migration of the upper ridge through early next week. As this occurs, surface high pressure will gradually shift off the East Coast and promote moisture return into the Plains and MS Valley. Tight clustering of GEFS members lends high confidence in the potential for a return of slightly above seasonal moisture by the D6/Monday to D7/Tuesday time frame. Thunderstorm chances should steadily increase through mid-week as southwesterly flow aloft becomes increasingly predominant and promotes ascent/lapse-rate advection over the northwestern fringe of the returning moisture. Extended-range guidance hints at severe thunderstorm potential through the D6/Monday to D8/Wednesday time frame - mainly across the upper MS Valley/Midwest within the warm conveyor region of an organizing cyclone. While confidence in the overall synoptic evolution through next week is high, notable run-to-run variability in the convective environment forecast beyond D6 suggests predictability remains too limited to warrant highlights at this time.

..Moore.. 03/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, March 25: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, March 26: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Friday, March 27: ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, March 28: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, March 29: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, March 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, March 31: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, April 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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