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Outlook for Saturday, April 18

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, April 14	15%
Day 5	Wednesday, April 15	15%
Day 6	Thursday, April 16	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, April 17	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, April 18	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110844 SPC AC 110844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Tue – Southern Plains to Great Lakes

A shortwave upper trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S. trough will eject across portions of the Plains to the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Tue. As this occurs, a surface low will deep over the central Plains and lift northeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Some uncertainty remains regarding the exact evolution of this system, mainly due to differences in medium range guidance with respect to surface low placement and timing of the upper shortwave trough. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass is expected ahead of the low and to the east of a Plains dryline and south of a Great Lakes warm front. Thunderstorm development should be more widespread along these boundaries compared to prior days given stronger large-scale ascent will overspread the central U.S., and height falls will result in a more robust low-level jet response. As a result, an all-hazards severe event is expected from the southern Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday/Tuesday night.

Day 5/Wed – Southern Plains to the Midwest

Medium range guidance varies heading into Wednesday with the operational GFS much more progressive and lower amplitude than the operational ECMWF. The AIGFS is much more in-line with the ECMWF/AIFS, so this period is weighted more toward those solutions. It appears the upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject across the Plains to the Mid-MS Valley during this time. A moist and unstable airmass will reside across the region ahead of dryline across western OK into central TX and a sagging cold front across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley. Areas of precipitation could be ongoing at the beginning of the period and does result in some uncertainty regarding where stronger destabilization will occur. Nevertheless, an overall favorable thermodynamic/kinematic parameter space will overlap this corridor and isolated to scattered severe storms appear likely.

Days 6-8/Thu-Sat

Medium range guidance depicts another trough developing across the West on Day 6/Thu and quickly progressing east through the end of the period. This could support a continued severe risk across parts of the southern Plains into the Midwest in the Thursday or Friday time frame. However, run to run consistency toward the end of the forecast period has not been very good. Additionally, multiple rounds of storms across the same areas earlier in the period may impact later severe potential. Trends will be monitored and probabilities may be needed in later outlooks.

..Leitman.. 04/11/2026

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, April 11: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, April 12: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, April 13: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, April 14: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, April 15: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, April 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, April 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, April 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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