Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, May 7

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, May 3	potential too low
Day 5	Monday, May 4	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, May 5	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, May 6	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, May 7	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300900 SPC AC 300900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Late this coming weekend into early next week, it still appears that at least a transient blocking high may continue to evolve offshore of the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast. It remains a bit uncertain how long this will persist before becoming suppressed, and an evolving low to its southeast is forced inland across southern California into the Southwest.

Latest medium range guidance continues to indicate that it is possible that a short wave perturbation could emerge from the remnant low/troughing, in advance of another significant short wave impulse emerging from the higher latitudes before amplifying southeastward to the lee of the Rockies, through the Atlantic Seaboard by the end of the period. However, it now appears probable that modest troughing, perhaps with a continuing cyclonic circulation, will linger near and south of the Southwestern international border.

In lower levels, southerly moist return flow may commence by early next week across the southern into central Great Plains as surface troughing deepens to the lee of the Rockies. This may begin to more substantively advect northeastward toward the Ohio Valley, in advance of a southward advancing cold front associated with the digging mid-level troughing. However, there is notable spread among the model output concerning potential surface cyclogenesis, near and northeast of the Rockies.

Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible from parts of the central and southern Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley by Tuesday, if not Monday. However, inhibition associated with warm elevated mixed-layer air overspreading the southern Great Plains may become a limiting factor, as low-level moisture becomes more supportive of strong destabilization.

There remains at least some signal in the model output for potentially more widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across the lower/middle Mississippi Valley into Ohio Valley by next Wednesday, perhaps into Thursday. However, with uncertainties remaining sizable at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent.

..Kerr.. 04/30/2026

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, April 30: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: low
Friday, May 1: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, May 2: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, May 3: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, May 4: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, May 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, May 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, May 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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