Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, May 9

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, May 5	15%
Day 5	Wednesday, May 6	15%
Day 6	Thursday, May 7	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, May 8	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, May 9	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020755 SPC AC 020755

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Tue-Wed – Southeast OK/ArkLaTex to Lower MS/TN Valleys

Southwesterly deep-layer flow will increase from the southern Rockies to the Mid-South on Day 4/Tuesday as a southern stream shortwave trough over the Southwest merges with an upper trough over the Plains/Upper Midwest. At the surface, low pressure will develop over the southern Plains and slowly progress east in AR as a cold front develops southeast across OK/AR and the Lower OH Valley. Ahead of the front, rich Gulf moisture will return northward, and 60s to near 70 F dewpoints are forecast by Tuesday afternoon/evening across southeast OK and the ArkLaTex. Timing of thunderstorm development is a bit uncertain as shortwave ridging may overspread the southern Plains vicinity through afternoon. However, forcing for ascent should increase with the approach of the surface front and as a low-level jet increasing Tuesday evening. Moderate instability and strong vertical shear should support severe thunderstorm activity near the cold front from late afternoon into Tuesday night.

On Day 5/Wednesday, the Plains upper trough will migrate east, extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley by early Thursday. The surface cold front will extend from the OH Valley into north/central TX Wednesday morning and slowly progress southeast through the period. Gulf moisture will return north and east across the southern U.S. ahead of the front. While deep-layer flow will largely be parallel to the surface front, moist and unstable airmass ahead of the front should support some risk for severe thunderstorms.

Days 6-8/Thu-Sat

A deepening surface low will develop northward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Thursday as a surface cold front continues to shift east across much of the eastern U.S. While a moist airmass will be in place across parts of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic, it is uncertain how much destabilization will occur due to possibly widespread thunderstorm activity and cloud cover (particularly from the Mid-Atlantic northward). Large-scale ascent will become increasingly displaced to the north across the Southeast, and convection may tend to be anafrontal. Trends will be monitored and severe probabilities could become necessary for parts of the eastern U.S. on Thursday in later outlooks.

Severe potential will be limited on Friday as the prior cold frontal passages clears out Gulf moisture and surface high pressure envelops much of the eastern half of the U.S. Weak upper troughing could overspread the Rockies and High Plains by the end of the period, allowing for Gulf moisture return across the Plains and an increase in thunderstorm potential.

..Leitman.. 05/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, May 2: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, May 3: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, May 4: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Tuesday, May 5: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, May 6: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, May 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, May 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, May 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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