Severe Weather Outlook

Hayley here - Do you want to see severe weather in your calendar?

* it's like an add-on for your digital calendar NOT a paper calendar

Outlook for Sunday, May 10

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, May 6	15%
Day 5	Thursday, May 7	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, May 8	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, May 9	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, May 10	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030750 SPC AC 030750

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wed – East TX to the Lower MS and TN Valley vicinity

Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region ahead of an upper trough pivoting east across the Plains toward the Mid-MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from the OH Valley to southern AR and central TX. Ahead of the front, rich Gulf moisture will be in place across southern and eastern TX into the Lower MS Valley eastward toward AL. Moderate to strong destabilization is expected across the warm sector ahead of the southward-sagging cold front. Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings. However, given linear forcing along the front and deep-layer flow largely parallel to the boundary, it is uncertain if discrete storms will be possible. Nevertheless, severe potential is still expected with clusters and linear segments given the favorable thermodynamic environment and strong vertical shear.

Day 5/Thu - South TX and parts of the Southeast

Some severe potential could persist into Thursday across south TX as the cold front continues to develop southward across a very moist and unstable airmass. However, large-scale ascent may be limited as forcing associated with the eastern U.S. upper trough focuses well northeast of the region. Shortwave upper ridging also may overspread region ahead of an upper low/trough over northwest Mexico.

Additional strong or severe storms will be possible across parts of the Southeast toward the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic as the cold front shifts east across that region. However, widespread showers/thunderstorms and cloud cover may limit destabilization, and convection could become anafrontal by this time.

Days 6-8/Fri-Sun

Spread beings to increase across model guidance by the weekend, though mean upper troughing across the East seems likely to persist. This typically would not be ideal for severe potential. However, an upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. Forecast guidance varies widely with the timing and evolution of these features however, and predictability is low.

..Leitman.. 05/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, May 3: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, May 4: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, May 5: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, May 6: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, May 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, May 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, May 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, May 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.