Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, May 11

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, May 7	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, May 8	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, May 9	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, May 10	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, May 11	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040730 SPC AC 040730

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Large-scale upper troughing is expected to envelop much of the eastern half of the CONUS for most of the forecast period. On Day 4/Thu, a surface cold front is expected to extend from the southern Mid-Atlantic to the central Gulf coast and southern TX. The front should largely move offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and over northern FL by early Day 5/Fri. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front and some severe thunderstorm potential could develop. However, 15 percent or greater coverage is uncertain given deep-layer flow parallel to the boundary, cloud cover and areas of showers/thunderstorms early Thursday, and large-scale ascent lifting northeast away from better low-level moisture.

Severe potential appears low Days 5-6/Fri-Sat. Boundary layer moisture will be limited due to the prior cold frontal passage and surface high pressure in its wake. Some guidance suggests a weak shortwave trough will migrate across the southern Rockies and southern Plains on Friday, resulting in lee troughing and some Gulf moisture return across TX Friday night into Saturday. This could bring an increasing chance for thunderstorms across portions for TX and perhaps the Lower MS Valley on Saturday, though severe potential is uncertain given large model spread. By early next week, another period of moisture return ahead of a shortwave trough ejecting from the Rockies into the Plains/Midwest could bring another bout of severe potential ahead of a cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast. However, timing and intensity of these features varies across control, AI, and ensemble guidance, resulting in low predictability.

..Leitman.. 05/04/2026

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National Risk Overview

Monday, May 4: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, May 5: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, May 6: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, May 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, May 8: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, May 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, May 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, May 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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