Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, May 12

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, May 8	potential too low
Day 5	Saturday, May 9	predictability too low
Day 6	Sunday, May 10	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, May 11	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, May 12	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050732 SPC AC 050732

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Mean upper troughing will persist east of the Rockies for the Day 4-8 period. This will largely suppress northward transport of Gulf moisture, except periodically across the southern Plains and Southeast/Gulf coast states. Severe potential is expected to be low on Day 4/Fri as surface high pressure dominates in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. On Day 5/Sat, lee troughing will allow for increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley, aiding in moisture return across these areas. This could result in thunderstorm potential across the south-central U.S., but severe potential is limited given a lack of stronger forcing for ascent. By Days 6-7/Sun-Mon, another cold front is forecast to move east/southeast across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As the front impinges on a moist airmass across the southern Plains to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, some severe potential could develop. However, mid to upper-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong and medium range guidance varies quite a bit with respect to moisture and cold front timing, resulting in low predictability.

..Leitman.. 05/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, May 5: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, May 6: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, May 7: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Friday, May 8: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, May 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, May 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, May 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, May 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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