Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, May 13

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, May 9	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, May 10	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, May 11	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, May 12	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, May 13	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060742 SPC AC 060742

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper shortwave trough will be located over TX on Day 4/Saturday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will migrate from the central Rockies into the into the central Plains on Saturday. These features will result in modestly increasing mid/upper level northwesterly flow across the Plains. At the surface, modest southerly low-level flow will continue to transport Gulf moisture northward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Weak surface cyclogenesis is possible across the central/southern Plains and a dryline will extend across western KS/OK/TX. This could be a focus for thunderstorm development on Saturday. However, how far north quality moisture return will occur (especially before Saturday night/early Sunday) is uncertain. Additionally, deep-layer flow is not forecast to be very strong. While some strong to severe thunderstorms could develop, confidence is too low to include severe probabilities.

By Day 5/Sunday, a large scale upper trough over the Plains will shift east, extending from the lower Great Lakes to the eastern Gulf by Monday morning. A surface low will move from the Midwest to the eastern U.S. while a trailing cold front develops southeast across the southern Plains and the Mid/Lower MS and OH Valleys. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place across the south-central to Southeast U.S. However, it is uncertain how much destabilization will occur as widespread precipitation and cloud cover are possible. Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could develop, but predictability is low at this time.

Heading into Days 6-8/Mon-Wed, mean troughing is likely to continue across the East with broad northwesterly flow across the Plains. The cold frontal passage on Sunday will likely suppress Gulf moisture on Monday. Another cold front is forecast to move across portions of the Plains and Midwest on Tuesday and any severe potential will depend on timing and quality of moisture return into the central U.S., which is uncertain. Overall, predictability is low late in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 05/06/2026

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, May 6: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, May 7: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Friday, May 8: ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, May 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, May 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, May 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, May 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, May 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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