Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, June 6

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, June 2	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, June 3	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, June 4	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, June 5	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, June 6	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300842 SPC AC 300842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a ridge is forecast to move slowly eastward from the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday to the northeastern U.S. by Thursday. During that time, a shortwave trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across the north-central U.S. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat is currently expected in the Dakotas on Tuesday and Wednesday, and in the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Regarding the spatial extent of any severe threat, some uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the trough and the location of maximum instability.

Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8

Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move across the central U.S. on Friday and Saturday. During this time, moisture and instability is forecast to be maximized in the Great Plains. As surface temperatures heat up each day, thunderstorm development and potentially an isolated severe threat will be possible across a relatively broad moist sector. Concerning predictability, the convoluted pattern introduces considerable uncertainty as to where the greatest severe threat will be.

..Broyles.. 05/30/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, May 30: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, May 31: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, June 1: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Tuesday, June 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, June 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, June 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, June 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, June 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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