Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, August 1

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, July 28	15%
Day 5	Wednesday, July 29	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, July 30	potential too low
Day 7	Friday, July 31	potential too low
Day 8	Saturday, August 1	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250845 SPC AC 250845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Tuesday

An upper low is forecast to develop from southwest ON into the northern Mid-Atlantic with an attending belt of 35-45 kt mid-level flow extending from the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cyclone will remain vertically aligned with the upper low, while a trailing cold front advances through the upper OH and TN Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and Gulf Coast states. A lee trough is expected to develop ahead of the cold front along the Piedmont Tuesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms (some potentially strong) are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, aided by forcing for ascent ahead of the upper low and low-level warm air and moisture advection along a 30-40 kt low-level jet. That activity is expected to linger into the afternoon from NY and PA into western New England, which will limit the potential for air mass destabilization in those areas. Stronger daytime heating appears possible south of the Mason-Dixon Line, where moderate instability is forecast across the pre-frontal warm sector.

Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity during the afternoon along the cold front and lee trough from the Delmarva into central Appalachians and VA/NC Piedmont. The moderate instability combined with 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear will support organized storm modes with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts.

Other more isolated severe storms appear possible over the central High Plains within a low-level upslope regime.

### Day 5/Wednesday

The Day 4/Tuesday upper low is forecast to slowly drift northeast with a belt of stronger mid-level winds overspreading New England. A surface low will remain vertically aligned with the mid-level system with convergence in the vicinity of that feature and a trailing front serving as the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development. The models suggest that southern to central parts of New England may become moderately unstable, which, combined with the slight shear enhancement, may support a few strong to severe storms.

Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along a frontal zone in the Southeast, where a very moist air mass will contribute to moderate to strong instability.

Uncertainty in the extent of the severe weather threat in both areas precludes the delineation of a 15% probability contour.

### Days 6-8/Thursday through Saturday

The 00Z ensemble means are in reasonably good agreement in depicting the retrogression of the upper high from the Southern Rockies into the lower CO Valley. A concurrent weakening and broadening of the eastern CONUS trough is also forecast. There is a model signal for a stronger mid-level system to move into BC and the Pacific Northwest by Day 8/Saturday. Deterministic guidance indicates a series of weak disturbances tracking from the northern Plains to along and east of the MS Valley during this time period with sporadic occurrences of severe weather possible. However, the large-scale pattern currently appears unsupportive of an organized severe weather episode.

..Mead.. 07/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, July 25: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, July 26: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, July 27: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Tuesday, July 28: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, July 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 30: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, July 31: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, August 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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