Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, June 7

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, June 3	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, June 4	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, June 5	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, June 6	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, June 7	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310842 SPC AC 310842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6

A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern High Plains on Wednesday, into the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday and into the Great Lakes on Friday. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast over the northern Plains, where a severe threat will be possible during the afternoon and evening on both Wednesday and Thursday. Large hail and severe wind gusts would be possible. The threat is forecast to be concentrated ahead of a cold front passing through the northern Plains. Considerable uncertainty exists concerning the timing of the front.

In the wake of the trough, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move into the northern Plains on Friday. Isolated severe storms will again be possible across the Dakotas Friday afternoon within an unstable airmass, but limited forcing would keep any severe threat more localized.

Further south across the southern and central Plains, a relatively broad corridor of moderate instability is forecast each afternoon from Wednesday to Friday. However, forcing is expected to remain limited, which should keep any severe threat isolated and conditional. ### Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8

On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the northwestern U.S., as a shortwave ridge moves from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. In the wake of the ridge, a secondary trough is forecast to move through the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms would be possible near this trough in the afternoon and evening on both Saturday and Sunday. However, the timing of the trough and distribution of instability surrounding the trough is considerably uncertain at this time.

..Broyles.. 05/31/2026

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, May 31: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, June 1: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, June 2: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, June 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, June 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, June 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, June 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, June 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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