Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 10

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, June 6	15%
Day 5	Sunday, June 7	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, June 8	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, June 9	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, June 10	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030845 SPC AC 030845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

Model guidance is in good agreement in the progression of a short-wave trough from the Great Lakes into Northeast, with a strong upstream system moving through the Canada Rockies and Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Elsewhere, a mid-level low will track through the southern and central Plains. In the low levels, a cold front is forecast to move through the Great Lakes into the OH Valley and Northeast, while a lee cyclone deepens over the northern High Plains along a separate cold front emerging from the northern Rockies.

The most probable location for organized severe thunderstorm development appears to be in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and front in portions of eastern MT and western ND Saturday afternoon and evening. There, steep lapse rates and moderate instability will coincide with steadily strengthening deep-layer shear. Elsewhere, at least isolated severe storms appear possible along the cold front from portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley and the Northeast, as well as in parts of TX, to the southeast of the upper low.

### Day5/Sunday

A short-wave trough will continue through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, while the bulk of ensemble guidance suggests the northern Rockies disturbance will lift northeast into the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Meanwhile, the central/southern Plains low is forecast to evolve into an open wave while moving into the mid/lower MO Valley and Ozark Plateau. The models indicate the potential for moderate to strong instability to develop across the northern Plains warm sector on Sunday afternoon. However, there is some signal that the strongest vertical shear will be displaced to the west of the cold front. Furthermore, given that the strongest forcing for ascent is expected to lift north of the International Border, residual capping across the warm sector may limit storm coverage. Given these concerns, no probabilities will be included in this forecast.

Elsewhere, at least isolated severe storms appears possible along the cold front in portions of the Northeast into Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon.

### Day 6-8/Monday through Wednesday

Ensemble guidance is suggestive that mid-level troughing will evolve along the West Coast early next week, with that feature slowly advancing through the Interior West. Considerably more spread is evident in the deterministic models, with low confidence in any one solution. In general, it appears that the stronger mid-level flow associated with the western U.S. trough may begin to overspread portions of the northern and central High Plains by Tuesday and/or Wednesday, where a moist and unstable air mass is expected to reside. Should confidence increase in the finer-scale details of the pattern, unconditional 15% probabilities may need to be included during this time frame.

..Mead.. 06/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, June 3: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, June 4: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Friday, June 5: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, June 6: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, June 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, June 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, June 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, June 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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