Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, June 5

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, June 1	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, June 2	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, June 3	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, June 4	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, June 5	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290826 SPC AC 290826

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a ridge is forecast to move from the north-central U.S. on Monday into the Great Lakes by Wednesday, as a shortwave trough moves slowly eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. In the vicinity of the ridge on Monday, an axis of moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop. In spite of limited forcing, isolated severe storms may form on Monday afternoon over parts of the north-central U.S., mainly in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. On Tuesday, isolated severe storms will be possible ahead of the approaching trough along a north-to-south corridor of instability in the Dakotas and Nebraska. Storms will again be possible ahead of the trough in the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys on Wednesday. The primary threats would be isolated severe gusts and hail.

Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8

The mid-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes on Thursday and into the Northeast on Friday, as another trough moves into the central U.S. Ahead of this second trough, isolated severe storms will be possible on Thursday and Friday in parts of the central and northern Plains. A few of the stronger storms could be associated with severe wind gusts and hail.

..Broyles.. 05/29/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, May 29: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, May 30: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, May 31: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, June 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, June 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, June 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, June 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, June 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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