Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, June 8

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, June 4	15%
Day 5	Friday, June 5	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, June 6	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, June 7	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, June 8	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010855 SPC AC 010855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6

At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across the western U.S. on Thursday, as a subtle lead shortwave trough moves into the central and northern High Plains. At the surface, a broad area of moderate instability is forecast to be in place across much of Nebraska and South Dakota by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the shortwave trough in the central and northern High Plains, with these storms moving eastward across western Nebraska and western South Dakota during the afternoon and evening. The instability along with moderate to strong deep-layer shear is expected to support severe thunderstorm development. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. An isolated tornado threat may also develop.

The mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Friday and into the upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday. During this time, a severe threat will be possible each afternoon ahead of the shortwave trough in a moist and unstable airmass. A more isolated severe threat may develop southward into the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. For these two days, spatial uncertainty is substantial concerning the exact location of where the severe threat will be greatest.

Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8

From Sunday into Monday, a broad corridor of moist air is expected to be in place over the Great Plains. Moderate to strong instability appears likely to develop across parts of this airmass each afternoon. Model forecasts suggest that deep-layer shear will remain relatively weak over most of the Great Plains. Although an isolated severe threat would be possible in some areas, uncertainty concerning the mid-level pattern and the resultant deep-layer shear is considerable at this time.

..Broyles.. 06/01/2026

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National Risk Overview

Monday, June 1: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, June 2: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, June 3: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, June 4: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, June 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, June 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, June 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, June 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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